In March, hope springs eternal across baseball. But things get real in April, and if last season taught us anything, it’s that the adage is often true: It’s much easier to lose a postseason spot in April than it is to win one.
In 2023, six of the nine American League teams that missed the postseason had records below .500 at the end of April — the other three were each 15-14. In the National League, all six playoff teams were above the .500 mark at the end of the season’s first full month.
In light of how things transpired from May through September last year, here’s a look at seven postseason hopefuls in need of a strong start in 2024:
Mariners (12-16 on April 30, 88-74 overall)
The Mariners are Exhibit A in the case for how a slow start can doom a season — Seattle finished one game out of the third and final AL Wild Card spot after beginning the season 12-16.
As goes superstar center fielder Julio Rodríguez, so go the Mariners — at least that was the case in 2023. J-Rod had a rough first half of the season, hitting .249 with a .721 OPS at the All-Star break. But he and his club caught fire in the second half — Rodríguez produced a .308/.363/.578 slash line with 19 home runs and 15 steals the rest of the way, and the M’s won 21 of 27 games in August to vault themselves back into the playoff race.
But it wasn’t enough, and the Mariners will need a strong showing early in the 2024 campaign in order to set themselves up for a postseason berth in the fall. That means J-Rod’s early performance to lead the lineup will be a critical factor, as will the performance of a talented starting rotation led by Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Logan Gilbert.
Reds (12-16 on April 30, 82-80 overall)
The Reds had us enthralled for a bit when they won 12 straight games in June to go from six games under .500 to six games over. But despite playing .500 ball or better in four of the final five months of the regular season, Cincinnati couldn’t overcome a sluggish start to qualify for the playoffs.
Nevertheless, this is a club with some tremendous young talent, including Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and others. Health and progress will be key for this group — McLain is already on the injured list after undergoing shoulder surgery, so an early hit on the injury front doesn’t bode well.
But if Cruz and company can make strides toward fulfilling their potential, 2024 could be a fun year in the Queen City.
Royals (7-22 on April 30, 56-106 overall)
The vibe in Kansas City has changed a lot since last season, when the Royals finished with 106 losses. That tends to happen when you sign your young superstar shortstop to an 11-year extension and bring in notable veterans to augment an exciting young core.
With Bobby Witt Jr. signing a huge extension and the additions of Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, Hunter Renfroe, Will Smith (the reliever) and others, the Royals are a trendy pick to be the surprise team of 2024. If they’re going to shock the baseball world and get to the postseason a year after tying a franchise record for losses in a season, a good start is imperative.
With Witt coming off a season in which he very nearly became the fourth player in AL/NL history to hit 30 or more homers and steal 50 or more bases, the prospect of a healthy Vinnie Pasquantino in the middle of the lineup, Wacha coming off a pair of resurgent seasons on the mound and a bolstered bullpen that could show significant improvement over last year, the ingredients are in place for Kansas City to make a run at the playoffs.
Cardinals (10-19 on April 30, 71-91 overall in 2023)
Coming off four consecutive postseason appearances and boasting the league’s reigning MVP (Paul Goldschmidt) and an MVP finalist (Nolan Arenado) in their lineup, the Cardinals were flying high heading into 2023. But by the end of April, St. Louis was nine games below .500, on its way to a 71-91 campaign that represented its worst full season since 1990.
The Cardinals moved quickly this past offseason to shore up a pitching staff whose 4.83 ERA ranked 24th in the Majors last year, signing veteran starters Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson, as well as acquiring relievers Keynan Middleton and Andrew Kittredge to bolster the bullpen.
Will it be enough to get them back to the postseason in 2024? Gray is already sidelined with injury and given the ages of Lynn (37 in May) and Gibson (36), injury to other key members of the rotation is a looming possibility. At the plate, Goldschmidt and Arenado will need to have bounce-back seasons to give St. Louis a real shot.
Giants (11-16 on April 30, 79-83 overall)
With a light-hitting lineup, the Giants needed strong pitching to succeed in 2023. But outside of NL Cy Young Award runner-up Logan Webb, thin pitching depth reared its ugly head in San Francisco. As a result, the club’s bullpen threw more innings (705 1/3) than any in the Majors. It also resulted in a middling club that finished four games below .500.
The front office made several moves this offseason to address the weaknesses from last year. On the starting pitching front, the Giants signed reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell to a two-year, $62 million contract to create a formidable 1-2 punch atop the rotation. San Francisco also bolstered its lineup with the addition of slugging designated hitter Jorge Soler, center fielder Jung Hoo Lee and four-time Gold Glove Award-winning third baseman Matt Chapman, who is off to a hot start.
The new-look Giants will look to avoid a sluggish start to the 2024 campaign, and the need for a strong April is even more urgent given the strength of the NL West.
Yankees (15-14 on April 30, 82-80 overall)
The 2023 campaign was a season of discontent in the Bronx. The Yankees, customarily the bearers of high expectations, had their worst season — in terms of winning percentage — since 1992. Injuries to key players and subpar production from most of the lineup sunk the Yanks’ efforts to reach the postseason and contend for their first World Series title since 2009.
Superstar Aaron Judge missed nearly two months with a torn ligament in his right big toe and the pitching staff took some major hits, particularly in the starting rotation with left-handers Carlos Rodón and Nestor Cortes missing substantial time with injuries.
The injuries didn’t relent in the new year, with reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Gerrit Cole being diagnosed with right elbow inflammation — he’ll likely be out until at least June. But with Rodón and Cortes healthy and the addition of all-world slugger Juan Soto to the lineup, the Yankees are optimistic about the months ahead. You can be sure they won’t be happy with a 15-14 start, and so far, so good — they’re 3-0 for the first time in 21 years.
